Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 24.927787 27.482932 30.371557 33.920773 38.224440 43.357073 50.075552
2025-03-02 21.168484 24.420302 28.406592 33.798482 41.156208 51.290324 67.264106
2025-03-09 18.608340 22.149018 26.746887 33.436537 43.495034 59.284652 89.506244
2025-03-16 16.759251 20.412763 25.367607 33.004723 45.467052 67.541132 119.525217
2025-03-23 15.377458 19.070322 24.254769 32.637025 47.331014 76.527869 163.141783
2025-03-30 14.320928 18.027665 23.385418 32.415944 49.317432 86.951044 233.777845
2025-04-06 13.324747 16.954767 22.313906 31.631736 49.981992 94.928995 326.922369
2025-04-13 12.978814 16.781790 22.579102 33.158529 55.800265 121.597062 813.482772
2025-04-20 12.318677 16.072352 21.899634 32.838654 57.473431 137.855518 2106.023947
2025-04-27 11.838125 15.593062 21.536557 33.042641 60.492090 163.897298 NaN
2025-05-04 11.433639 15.196552 21.264154 33.369125 63.991699 199.765614 NaN
2025-05-11 11.028309 14.766890 20.888754 33.416974 66.789417 240.596730 NaN
2025-05-18 10.569685 14.228777 20.287902 32.923207 67.932843 276.953714 NaN
2025-05-25 10.225185 13.854232 19.945796 32.946730 70.819815 345.805087 NaN
2025-06-01 9.868918 13.438801 19.495020 32.660501 72.619637 421.293323 NaN
2025-06-08 9.529265 13.031754 19.027770 32.271378 73.960661 512.405417 NaN
2025-06-15 9.222418 12.663078 18.604184 31.928474 75.405884 640.868217 NaN
2025-06-22 8.954988 12.346802 18.255718 31.720248 77.375164 855.341492 NaN
2025-06-29 8.643191 11.941172 17.711829 30.965876 76.793010 993.767581 NaN
2025-07-06 8.600874 11.990565 18.038886 32.439325 87.038664 3711.357211 NaN
2025-07-13 8.370440 11.704826 17.694007 32.131376 88.718868 9607.720450 NaN
2025-07-20 8.205503 11.525142 17.545954 32.328227 93.277713 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.061355 11.374890 17.445780 32.643013 98.888746 NaN NaN